US Homeland Security forecasts 5-year threat view

[James (yaakov)]

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/12/25/america/NA-US-Homeland-Th...
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US Homeland Security forecasts 5-year threat view

The Associated Press
Published: December 25, 2008
WASHINGTON <> : The terrorism threat to the United States over the next five
years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa,
persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy, says
a new intelligence assessment obtained by The Associated Press.

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the
most dangerous threats that could be carried out against the U.S. But those
threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaida
and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots,
according to the internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years
2008-2013.

The al-Qaida terrorist network continues to focus on U.S. attack targets
vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political "turmoil,"
the assessment said.
Earlier this month, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the
threat posed by weapons of mass destruction remains "the highest priority at
the federal level." Speaking to reporters on Dec. 3, Chertoff explained that
more people, such as terrorists, will learn how to make dirty bombs,
biological and chemical weapons. "The other side is going to continue to
learn more about doing things," he said.
Marked "for official use only," the report does not specify its audience,
but the assessments typically go to law enforcement, intelligence officials
and the private sector. When determining threats, intelligence officials
consider loss of life, economic and psychological consequences.
Intelligence officials also predict that in the next five years, terrorists
will try to conduct a destructive biological attack. Officials are concerned
about the possibility of infections to thousands of U.S. citizens,
overwhelming regional health care systems.
There could also be dire economic impacts caused by workers' illnesses and
deaths. Officials are most concerned about biological agents stolen from
labs or other storage facilities, such as anthrax.
"The threat of terrorism and the threat of extremist ideologies has not
abated," Chertoff said in his year-end address on Dec. 18. "This threat has
not evaporated, and we can't turn the page on it."
These high-consequence threats are not the only kind of challenges that will
confront the U.S. over the next five years.
Terrorists will continue to try to evade U.S. border security measures and
place operatives inside the mainland to carry out attacks, the 38-page
assessment said. It also said that they may pose as refugees or asylum
seekers or try to exploit foreign travel channels such as the visa waiver
program, which allows citizens of 34 countries to enter the U.S. without
visas.
Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and asylum
programs will cause more foreigners to try to enter the U.S. illegally.
Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the U.S. in the next
five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could increase because of
conflicts in those countries, the assessment said.
Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials
expect more will try to enter the U.S. illegally as well. Officials predict
the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Intelligence officials predict the pool of radical Islamists within the U.S.
will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease of online
recruiting means. Officials foresee "a wave of young, self-identified Muslim
'terrorist wannabes' who aspire to carry out violent acts."
The U.S. has already seen some examples of these homegrown terrorists.
Recently five Muslim immigrants were convicted of plotting to massacre U.S.
soldiers at Fort Dix in a case the government said demonstrated its
post-Sept. 11 determination to stop terrorist attacks in the planning
stages.
The Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah does not have a known history of
fomenting attacks inside the U.S., but that could change if there is some
kind of "triggering" event, the Homeland assessment cautions.
A 2008 Interagency Intelligence Committee on Terrorism assessment said that
Hezbollah members based in the U.S. do local fundraising through charity
projects and criminal activity, like money laundering, smuggling, drug
trafficking, fraud and extortion, according to the homeland security
assessment.
In addition, the cyber terror threat is expected to increase over the next
five years, as hacking tools become more sophisticated and available.
"Youthful, Internet-savvy extremists might apply their online acumen to
conduct cyber attacks rather than offer themselves up as operatives to
conduct physical attacks," according to the assessment.
Currently, Islamic terrorists, including al-Qaida, would like to conduct
cyber attacks, but they lack the capability to do so, the assessment said.
The large-scale attacks that are on al-Qaida's wishlist - such as disrupting
a major city's water or power systems - require sophisticated cyber
capabilities that the terrorist group does not possess.
But al-Qaida has the capability to hire sophisticated hackers to carry out
these kinds of attacks, the assessment said. And federal officials believe
that in the next three to five years, al-Qaida could direct or inspire cyber
attacks that target the U.S. economy.
Counterterrorism expert Frank Cilluffo says the typical cyber attack would
not achieve al-Qaida's main goal of inflicting mass devastation with its
resulting widespread media coverage.

However, al-Qaida is likely to continue
to rely on the Internet to spread its message, said Cilluffo, who runs the
Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University.
Officials also predict that domestic terrorists in the forms of radical
animal rights and environmental extremists will become more adept with
explosives and increase their use of arson attacks.
* * * * * * *
"The best we can hope for concerning the people at large is that they be
properly armed."
-- Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers at 184-188


GET READY ~~~PEOPLE IF AL-QUAIDA is NOT a THREAT then it will come from 'GUESS WHO'~>>>AGAIN!