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Sugar Drops in New York as Crude-Oil Decline Cuts Fuel Demand & Canada's Dollar Drops as Crude Oil Plunges, U.S. Economy Slows & OPEC Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast for a Second Month (Update1)

Sugar Drops in New York as Crude-Oil Decline Cuts Fuel Demand
By Ron Day

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar declined in New York for the first time in three sessions on speculation that falling crude- oil prices will trim demand for fuel made from cane.

Oil slid to its lowest price in more than a year after OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, lowered its 2009 demand forecast for a second month as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s threatens a global recession. Lower oil prices may reduce demand for ethanol, a fuel additive refined from cane in Brazil, the world's biggest sugar producer.

Raw-sugar futures for March delivery fell 0.32 cent, or 2.7 percent, to 11.39 cents a pound at 8:16 a.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Day in New York at rday1@bloomberg.net.


Canada's Dollar Drops as Crude Oil Plunges, U.S. Economy Slows
By Chris Fournier

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's currency weakened for a second day as crude oil fell below $75 a barrel and reports showed the U.S. economy may fall into recession.

The Canadian dollar has depreciated 13.8 percent since July 11 when crude reached a record $147.27. Canada relies on commodities for about half its export revenue. Its largest trading partner is the U.S.

``We think the trends here are going to continue,'' said Steven Barrow, a currency strategist at Standard Bank Plc in London. The Canadian dollar is being ``undermined by what's happening in commodity prices and affected economically by the slowdown in the U.S.''

The Canadian dollar weakened as much as 1 percent to C$1.1746 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.1624 yesterday. It last traded at C$1.1744 at 10:21 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 85.16 U.S. cents.

Sales at U.S. retailers dropped in September by the most in three years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Federal Reserve's gauge of manufacturing in New York sank to a record low. The U.S. is in a recession, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a speech last night.

Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as $3.66, or 4.7 percent, to $74.97 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week the Canadian dollar fell the most in at least 37 years.

`Deserves to Be Weaker'

``The Canadian dollar deserves to be a weaker currency,'' said Barrow. ``For a long period of time it's been too strong.'' He predicts the loonie, as the currency is known because of the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, will depreciate to C$1.25 against the U.S. dollar in six months.

``The plunge is consistent with commodity prices,'' Toronto- based UBS analysts George Vasic and Garry Cooper wrote in a note dated yesterday. They estimate the fair value of the Canadian currency, which since 1996 has a 0.96 correlation with UBS's commodity-price basket, to be C$1.14. A correlation of 1 would mean the currency moves in lock-step with commodity prices.

Other commodity-based currencies including those in Mexico, Australia and Brazil also fell against the U.S. dollar as raw- material prices slumped. The peso slipped 2.9 percent, the real dropped 3.1 percent and the Aussie weakened 0.7 percent.

Commodity Index

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities fell 2.93, or 1 percent, to 292.41 and is down 35 percent in the past three months.

Raw materials such as gold account for 60 percent of Australia's exports. Oil generates about 40 percent of the government revenue in Mexico. Brazil is the world's biggest sugar producer and exporter.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will return to office with more seats in Parliament, though still not enough for a majority government, after winning yesterday's election as the financial crisis spreads north from the U.S.

Harper's Conservative Party won 143 districts, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada. Stephane Dion's Liberal Party won 76, followed by the Bloc Quebecois with 50 and the New Democratic Party with 37. Harper held 127 seats in the 308-seat legislature before the vote was called.

The stronger showing for Harper, 49, strengthens his hand to control the legislative agenda and deal with the effects of the credit crunch. His first task will be to shore up banks and manage a slowdown in tax revenue that threatens to end a record streak of 11 consecutive budget surpluses.

The 10-year note's yield was little changed at 3.82 percent. The price of the 4.25 percent security maturing in June 2018 rose 1 cent to C$103.44.

The yield on the two-year government bond rose 1 basis point to 2.33 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 slipped 1 cent to C$100.87.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net



OPEC Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast for a Second Month (Update1)
By Grant Smith

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, lowered its 2009 demand forecast for a second month as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s threatens to send the global economy into a recession.

OPEC will hold an extraordinary meeting on Nov. 18 in Vienna, after its decision to trim excess supplies at last month's gathering failed to check a slump in prices, which have tumbled 49 percent from their July record. The group told members on Sept. 10 to strictly comply with production quotas, implying a cut of about 500,000 barrels a day.

``Dramatically worsening conditions in financial markets indicate strong fallout on the real economy is now inevitable,'' OPEC said today in its monthly oil market report. ``Ongoing financial market turmoil is expected to continue to impact oil demand well into the coming year.''

The 13-member group reduced its forecast for average oil consumption next year by 450,000 barrels a day, or 0.5 percent, to 87.21 million barrels a day, according to the report. OPEC, based in Vienna, also cut its forecast for demand this year by 330,000 barrels a day.

Last week, the International Energy Agency, an adviser to 28 nations, lowered its projection for global oil demand next year by 0.5 percent to 87.2 million barrels a day.

Next year, the world's most advanced economies will grow at the slowest pace since 1982, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook on Oct. 8.

Developing Nations

Oil consumption in developing countries will still increase 2.6 percent to 25.72 million barrels a day next year, OPEC said.

The group lowered the demand forecast for its own crude in 2009 by 190,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent, to 31.14 million barrels a day. That means consumption of OPEC's oil would shrink by 870,000 barrels a day next year.

In 2008, demand for OPEC crude is predicted to be 32.01 million barrels a day, 10,000 barrels lower than last month.

OPEC also lowered its expectation for supplies from outside the group this year and next, following storm damage in the Gulf of Mexico and pipeline disruptions in Azerbaijan.

The group acknowledged that next month's summit, announced last week, is in response to ``recent financial turmoil'' that may ``considerably reduce demand for crude oil.''

Output Cut

OPEC president Chakib Khelil said on Oct. 9 that a production cut is ``very likely.'' Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari today agreed that a reduction is the most likely outcome of the Nov. 18 summit. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, hasn't said whether it would support a cut.

OPEC forecast supply from outside the 13-member group to rise by 970,000 barrels a day, or 2 percent, in 2009 to 50.7 million barrels a day. Last month it forecast 2009 non-OPEC supply at 50.81 million barrels a day.

The group shaved its 2008 projection for non-OPEC production by 200,000 barrels a day to 49.74 million barrels a day. Industrialized countries' own output will decline by 270,000 barrels a day.

Total OPEC crude production averaged 32.157 million barrels a day in September, a drop of 308,600 barrels a day from August, the report said, citing secondary-source estimates that include analysts and news agencies.

Saudi output fell by 113,600 barrels a day in September to 9.377 million barrels a day, according to the report.

OPEC's 13 members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Indonesia will leave the group on Jan. 1.

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net.

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